Financial risks and opportunities
The following section deals with the financial risks and opportunities of the Daimler Group. Risks and opportunities can have negative or positive effects on the profitability, cash flows and financial position of the Daimler Group. The probability of occurrence and possible impact of these risks and opportunities is presented in table B.61. The probability of occurrence and impact of the financial risks and opportunities are essentially unchanged from the previous year. Only in the case of country risks, the possible impact has decreased from “Medium” to “Low” because of declining risk factors, and with risks of limited access to capital markets, our assessment of the probability of occurrence has increased from “Low” to “Medium” due to the increased volatility of the financial markets.
|Risk category||Probability of occurrence||Impact||Opportunity category||Impact|
|Exchange rate risks||Low||High||Exchange rate opportunities||High|
|Interest rate risks||Low||Low||Interest rate opportunities||Low|
|Commodity price risks||Low||Low||Commodity price opportunities||Low|
|Credit risks||Low||Low||Credit opportunities||–|
|Country risks||Low||Low||Country opportunities||–|
|Risks of restricted capital-market access||Medium||High||Opportunities of restricted capital-market access||–|
|Risks of credit repayment requirements||Low||Low||Opportunities of credit repayment requirements||–|
|Risks from changes in credit ratings||Medium||Low||Opportunities from changes in credit ratings||Low|
|Risks related to pension plans||Low||High||Opportunities relating to pension plans||High|
In principle, the Group’s operating and financial risk exposures underlying its financial risks and opportunities can be divided into symmetrical and asymmetrical risk and opportunity profiles. With the symmetrical risk and opportunity profiles (e.g., currency exposures), risks and opportunities exist equally, while with the asymmetrical risk and opportunity profiles (e.g., credit and country exposures), the risks outweigh the opportunities.
Daimler is generally exposed to risks and opportunities from changes in market prices such as currency exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices. Market price changes can have a negative or positive influence on the Group’s profitability, cash flows and financial position. Daimler systematically manages and monitors market price risks and opportunities primarily in the context of its operational business and financing activities, and applies derivative financial instruments for hedging purposes where needed, thus limiting both market price risks and opportunities.
In addition, the Group is exposed to credit-, country- and liquidity-related risks, risks of restricted access to capital markets, risks of early credit repayment requirements and risks from changes in credit ratings. As part of the risk management process, Daimler regularly assesses these risks by considering changes in key economic indicators and market information. Pension plan assets to cover retirement and healthcare benefits (market-sensitive investments including equities and interest-bearing securities) are not included in the following analysis.
Exchange rate risks and opportunities
The Daimler Group’s global orientation means that its business operations and financial transactions are connected with risks and opportunities related to fluctuations in currency exchange rates. This applies in particular to fluctuations of the euro against the US dollar, Chinese renminbi, British pound and other currencies such as those of growth markets. An exchange rate risk or opportunity arises in business operations primarily when revenue is generated in a currency different from that of the related costs (transaction risk). This applies in particular to Mercedes-Benz Cars & Vans. A major portion of its revenue is generated in foreign currencies while most of its production costs are denominated in euros. Daimler Trucks & Buses is also exposed to such transaction risks, but to a lesser degree because of its worldwide production network. Regularly updated currency risk exposures are successively hedged with suitable financial instruments (predominantly currency forwards and currency options) in accordance with exchange rate expectations, which are continually reviewed, whereby both risks and opportunities are limited. Any overcollateralization caused by changes in exposure is generally reversed by suitable measures without delay. Exchange rate risks and opportunities also exist in connection with the translation into euros of the net assets, revenues and expenses of the companies of the Group outside the euro zone (translation risk); these risks are not generally hedged.
Interest rate risks and opportunities
Changes in interest rates can create risks and opportunities for business operations as well as for financial transactions. Daimler employs a variety of interest-rate sensitive financial instruments to manage the cash requirements of its business operations on a day-to-day basis. Most of these financial instruments are held in connection with the financial services business of Daimler Mobility. Interest rate risks and opportunities arise when fixed-interest periods are not congruent between the asset and liability sides of the balance sheet. By means of refinancing coordinated with the terms of the financing agreements, the risk of maturity mismatch is minimized from both an interest-rate and a liquidity perspective. Remaining interest-rate risks are managed with the use of derivative financial instruments. The funding activities of the industrial business and the financial services business are coordinated at Group level. Derivative interest rate instruments such as interest rate swaps are used to achieve the desired interest rate maturities and asset/liability structures (asset and liability management).
Commodity price risks and opportunities
As described in the section on procurement market risks and opportunities, Daimler is exposed to risks arising from changes in prices of raw materials. A small proportion of the raw-material price risks, primarily from the planned purchase of certain metals, is reduced through the use of derivative financial instruments.
Credit risk describes the risk of financial loss resulting from a counterparty failing to meet its contractual payment obligations. Credit risk includes both the direct risk of default and the risk of a deterioration in creditworthiness, as well as concentration risks.
The Group is exposed to credit risks which result primarily from its financial services activities and from the operations of its vehicle business. The risks from leasing and sales financing are dealt with in the »General market risks and opportunities« section.
Credit risks also arise from the Group’s liquid assets. Should defaults occur, this would adversely affect the Group’s financial position, cash flows and profitability. The limit methodology for liquid funds deposited with financial institutions has been continuously further developed in recent years. In connection with investment decisions, priority is placed on the borrowers’ very high creditworthiness and on balanced risk diversification. Most liquid assets are held in investments with an external rating of “A” or better.
Country risk describes the risk of financial loss resulting from changes in political, economic, legal or social conditions in the respective country, for example due to sovereign measures such as expropriation or a ban on currency transfers. Daimler is exposed to country risks that primarily result from cross-border financing or collateralization for Group companies or customers, from investments in subsidiaries and joint ventures, and from cross-border trade receivables. Country risks also arise from cross-border cash deposits with financial institutions. The Group addresses these risks by setting country limits (e.g., for hard-currency portfolios of Daimler Mobility companies). Daimler also has an internal rating system that divides all countries in which it operates into risk categories.
Risks of restricted access to capital markets
Liquidity risks arise when a company is unable to fully meet its financial obligations. In the normal course of business, Daimler uses bonds, commercial paper and securitized transactions, as well as bank loans in various currencies, primarily with the aim of refinancing its leasing and sales-financing business. An increase in the cost of refinancing would have a negative impact on the competitiveness and profitability of our financial services business to the extent that the higher refinancing costs cannot be passed on to customers; a limitation of the financial services business would also have negative consequences for the vehicle business. Access to capital markets in individual countries may be limited by government regulations or by a temporary lack of absorption capacity. In addition, pending legal proceedings as well as Daimler’s own business policy considerations and developments may temporarily prevent the Group from covering any liquidity requirements by means of borrowing in the capital markets.
Risks of premature credit repayment requirements
Daimler may be required to make premature repayment of special-purpose loans in the case of adverse results of ongoing legal proceedings. Any resulting refinancing requirement could have to be concluded at a higher cost.
Risks and opportunities from changes in credit ratings
Risks and opportunities exist in connection with potential downgrades or upgrades to credit ratings by the rating agencies, and thus to Daimler’s creditworthiness. Downgrades could have a negative impact on the Group’s financing if such a downgrade leads to an increase in the costs for external financing or restricts the Group’s ability to obtain financing. A credit rating downgrade could also discourage investors from investing in Daimler AG.
Risks and opportunities relating to pension plans
Daimler has pension benefit obligations and to a lesser degree, obligations relating to healthcare benefits, which are largely covered by plan assets. The balance of pension obligations less plan assets constitutes the carrying amount or funded status of those employee benefit plans. The measurement of pension obligations and the calculation of net pension expense are based on certain assumptions. Even small changes in those assumptions such as a change in the discount rate have a negative or positive effect on the funded status and Group equity in the current financial year, and lead to changes in the periodic net pension expense in the following financial year. The fair value of plan assets is determined to a large degree by developments in the capital markets. Unfavorable or favorable developments, especially relating to share prices and fixed-interest securities, reduce or increase the carrying value of plan assets. A change in the composition of plan assets can also have a positive or negative impact on the fair value of plan assets. The broad diversification of investments, the selection of asset managers on the basis of quantitative and qualitative analyses, and the ongoing monitoring of returns and risks contribute to a reduction in the investment risk. The structure of pension obligations is taken into consideration with the determination of the investment strategy for the plan assets in order to reduce fluctuations of the funded status.
Further information on the pension plans and their risks is provided in Note 22 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements. Further information on financial risks, risk-limiting measures and the management of these risks is provided in Note 33 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements. Information on the Group’s financial instruments is provided in Note 32 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements.